Japan And South Korea: Allies In Conflict

JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA: ALLIES IN CONFLICT The long-standing contradictions between Japan and South Korea went beyond the bounds of diplomacy, and, as a result, the world’s 3rd and 11th largest economies unleashed a trade war against each other. Potential consequences of this conflict between Washington’s two key allies in Asia can be significant, leading to changes not only in the global electronics supply chain, but also regional geopolitics and nuclear security since the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle is a fundamental alliance in addressing the North Korean nuclear issue. Meanwhile, the parties demonstrate an uncompromising determination to continue the confrontation, and the White House is not taking the initiative to reconcile the allies. Japan and South Korea are key trading partners for each other. Based on this dependence and with the U.S. support, the relations of the two countries were at a high level and void of complex crises. However, after Shinzo Abe came to power in Japan in 2012 and Park Geun-hye in South Korea in 2013, relations between the partners began to deteriorate. First of all, this was caused by the strengthening of militarism of Japan, including the changing role of the military forces and attempts to abolish Article 9 of the country’s constitution, which prohibits maintaining an army. At the same time, Seoul became concerned with the symbolic actions of the Japanese establishment, for example, visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, including by the Prime Minister himself, as well as with Japan’s position on a number of controversial historical issues, especially the ‘Comfort Women’ issue related to Korean women forced by the Japanese into sexual slavery in military field brothels before and during World War II. However, the countries showed flexibility and were able to resolve these issues, achieving a formal settlement in 2015, when Japan set up an $8 million fund to compensate for the victims of exploitation. In South Korea, the agreement provoked a popular protest, and two years later the foundation was disbanded.

There are other complex historical issues between the countries that need to be resolved, such as the participation of the male population of South Korea in World War II on the side of Japan, labor exploitation of Koreans by Japanese companies, and the forced change of Korean names by Japanese authorities. Ideally, South Koreans would like Japan to issue an official apology, following Germany’s example, but at the moment Tokyo’s position is far from that of Berlin. The next issue that has sharply aggravated recently is the territorial dispute over the Dokdo / Takeshima Islands as the Abe government decided to raise this topic again. The islands themselves are not a controversial issue, but the real dispute is about the 200-mile economic zone surrounding them, which contains rich gas deposits and fish stock. In general, this conflict is difficult to resolve, and the countries are engaged in ongoing consultations. However, the unresolved status of the islands always becomes a reason for the exacerbation of the situation, depending on certain goals pursued by the leaders of the two countries.

The reason for the current escalation of the conflict between the countries is related to one of the historical issues, namely the exploitation of Korean citizens by Japanese companies. In October 2018, the South Korean Supreme Court took the side of the workers and their heirs, ruling that Japanese enterprises, including Mitsubishi and Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., should pay money as compensation for forced labor. Japanese business, on the advice of their government, refused to comply with the judgment. Then the South Korean court arrested the shares of Nippon Steel and ordered to sell them. Japanese authorities immediately criticized this decision, insisting that the problem had been settled “completely and finally” in 1965, when the Republic of Korea and Japan signed an agreement on the complete settlement of this issue, with Japan paying compensation of more than $2 billion. Tokyo decided to prove that Seoul was in breach of its obligations and bring the case on the compensation for forced labor to the international arbitration court. However, South Korea refused international arbitration, which further worsened the situation. The Japanese leadership’s response was the July 4, 2019 introduction of the restriction on imports from South Korea of a number of chemicals and components used in the manufacture of displays for smartphones and TV sets, as well as for the manufacture of semiconductors. Next, in August, Japan excluded South Korea from the ‘white list’ of countries that can freely acquire Japanese electronic components intended for military production. Tokyo also plans to limit the transfer of certain technologies used in the production of some high-tech goods. If the two Asian economic giants engage in a fullscale trade war, it will cause enormous damage to electronics supply chains around the world since both countries are important players at the market of electrical products. This will put an additional pressure on the global economy, which has already suffered from the trade war between the United States and China.

So far, the South Korean government has not introduced retaliatory measures, but warns that it will be forced to do so. At the same time, there are calls in Korean society to boycott Japanese manufacturers and refrain from visiting Japan for tourist purposes. In addition, the South Korean alliance of supermarkets, which unites over 23,000 stores, has temporarily suspended the sale of Japanese goods.

The parties urgently need to start the negotiation process, because the crisis is deepening. South Korea has already expressed its willingness to discuss the situation at a meeting of the General Council of the World Trade Association. In turn, Japan hints that South Korea is selling goods to its northern neighbor, bypassing UN sanctions, which could result in significant sanctions for Seoul. If the conflict enters the international arena, it may become more difficult to resolve it because of the involvement of international organizations and other participants. At the same time, it must be admitted that historical differences are an important factor that could be resolved if Japan used the example of Germany. But it must also be recognized that history is becoming a hostage of the political situation. During his election campaign, the incumbent president of Korea, Moon Jae Ying, promised to revise the agreements reached earlier on the ‘Comfort Women’ issue. He could have refrained from using this issue, but decided to exploit it again for his own purposes. Japan, in turn, has also sharply escalated the issue of compensation, probably for a reason. For example, by limiting South Korean exports, Japan can try to regain positions at the high-tech market. After all, now Samsung is one of the main competitors of Sony. It is noteworthy that U.S. President Trump’s leadership style and actions have a certain popularity among the Japanese political elite, which does not mind using similar tactics, such as a trade war. At the same time, one should not exclude a completely complicated scheme: probably, Tokyo hopes that Washington will, as always, intervene to settle the dispute among its allies, which will reduce the White House’s pressure on Japan in security and trade issues.

Summing up the analysis of the conflict between the two main Asian democracies, it is necessary to note its complexity, as well as the desire of the Japanese and South Korean political elites to use the nationalist rhetoric, which allows you to mobilize the electorate and sometimes shift the focus from internal political problems. At the same time, the conflict demonstrates the lack of multilateral diplomacy tools in Asia to resolve such conflicts, as well as the inability of even such mature democratic countries as Japan and South Korea to find a compromise themselves without a U.S. intervention. This is an interesting lesson for Central Asia, where a number of observers constantly note the inability of the regional states to reach agreements without the participation of a third party.

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