Kazakhstan and China: The Issue of Transboundary Rivers

KAZAKHSTAN AND CHINA: THE ISSUE OF TRANSBOUNDARY RIVERS During the June 2017 visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Kazakhstan and his reciprocal June 2018 visit to China, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev stated that there were no unresolved issues between the two countries. Indeed, at the declaratory level, bilateral cooperation between Kazakhstan and China has developed on a mutually beneficial basis and achieved the strategic partnership level, but it is obvious that the two countries have differing views on certain cross-border issues. One of such issues is the legal status and use of transboundary rivers, discussions on which started between Beijing and Astana in 1998. Since then, not only Kazakh government officials, but also general public have become concerned with China’s regional hydro policy and its potential negative consequences for Kazakhstan. Currently, the two main problematic topics between Kazakhstan and China are the “rational and equitable” distribution of water and the prevention of water pollution.

Along with a 1700-km long border, Kazakhstan and China share 23 transboundary rivers, including the largest ones – Ertis and Ile, both of which are vital for Kazakhstan. Since 1999, Beijing has been implementing the “Develop the West” strategy, which has led to a steady expansion of the agricultural, industrial, infrastructural, and energy sectors in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). As Xinjiang is mostly a desert or semi-desert area, its development is tightly dependent on the availability of water, and Chinese authorities have been extensively using Ertis and Ile resources for this purpose. Moreover, due to the active resettlement of the population from mainland China to the XUAR, the province population increased to 22 million by 2010, which significantly increased Xinjiang’s water needs. On the Ertis, China constructed two channels by 2008 – Black Ertis-Karamay and Ertis-Urumqi. The water flow through these waterways amount to 6.3 km³ per year, which is 2.5 times higher than the limit considered safe for the exploitation of transboundary water resources. On the Ile, China constructed 13 reservoirs and 59 hydropower plants. According to Kazakhstan’s estimates, the Chinese side annually diverts about 15 km³ of Ile water, and this number is constantly growing. In addition to the decreasing volume of incoming water, there are also many complaints about poor water quality as waste water discharges from the growing industrial capacity of Xinjiang harm both Ertis and Ile rivers.

Kazakhstan is concerned with China’s excessive water use because the life of Central and Eastern Kazakhstan, which already experiences a water shortage, directly depends on the Ertis and Ile rivers. More than 2.5 million people live in the Ertis watershed in Kazakhstan, and the river also feeds the Ertis-Karagandy Canal, which is the main source of water for Astana and Karagandy. Out of 25 km3 of Ertis water reaching Kazakhstan, the country only consumes 2% for canal needs. Water resources of the Ertis River and its tributaries are used for industrial needs, housing and communal services, fishery, agriculture, irrigation, hydropower production, and navigation. There are three large reservoirs on the Ertis – Bukhtarma (5,490 km2), Shulba (255 km2) and Oskemen (37 km2). The Ile River runs into Lake Balkhash, Kazakhstan’s second largest waterbody after the Caspian Sea. About onesixth of the country’s population live in the Ile-Balkhash basin, and one-fifth of Kazakhstan’s industrial enterprises operate there. The Qapshagai reservoir holding 21.8 km3 of water is located on the Ile, and 90% of Ile water is used for irrigation.

Astana’s main concern is that at current rates of water use by China the transboundary river basins in Kazakhstan will significantly decrease leading to economic losses and environmental degradation. For example, electricity generation at the Ertis-based hydro power plants may decrease by 25% by 2030, while the Bukhtarma and Shulba reservoirs, as well as Lake Zaisan, may partially desiccate. However, Kazakhstan, located downstream from both rivers, finds itself in a disadvantageous position in complicated water management negotiations with China. It is noteworthy that Beijing insists on taking into account the population sizes of the transboundary river regions when discussing water sharing arrangements, but this approach is not acceptable for Kazakhstan, whose population in the adjacent areas is much smaller compared to that of the XUAR. Besides, the Chinese side justifies its extensive construction of water reservoirs by the fact that during the Soviet period Kazakhstan already made an extensive use of the transboundary rivers, having built the large reservoirs and hydropower stations. Since the beginning of its dam construction and river reorganization activities along the transboundary watercourses in the 1990s, China has repeatedly sought to reconcile its hydro policy with the broader political goals and objectives towards its neighbors, trying to avoid water disputes through various forms of ad hoc cooperation. However, in managing transboundary water resources, China acts in accordance with the principle of territorial sovereignty, according to which it has the right to use as much water as necessary if its source is on its territory. When negotiating on water resources, Beijing prefers to use the bilateral format, practically ignoring the norms of international law. China refuses to sign the 1992 Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, which determines the right of each state to an equitable share in the use of transboundary waters and provides for environmental obligations of its participants, as well as the 1997 Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. The country, though, joined the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, both of which protect ecosystems, including transboundary rivers, and Kazakhstan as a party to both conventions can use these platforms to engage with China in areas that are directly related to transboundary water management. It should be noted that Kazakhstan and China made the first important step in water management cooperation in 2001 when they established a joint commission on the use and protection of transboundary rivers. The commission became possible due to the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization just a few months earlier and the resulting positive atmosphere among its members. Although the scope of the commission’s activities remains narrow, focusing only on monitoring and research, this can certainly be considered as an unprecedented step on China’s part. As a result of activities of the commission and its working groups, Kazakhstan and China concluded several intergovernmental and interdepartmental documents, the most important of which was the 2001 agreement on cooperation in the use and protection of transboundary rivers. In subsequent years, however, China abandoned the agreed position on the issue of transboundary rivers. In 2007, in view of the emerging environmental problems, Kazakhstan offered China a preferential 10-year contract for the supply of food in exchange for an increase in the river flow to Balkhash, but Beijing rejected the deal. It was only in 2011 that the two countries started a new phase of joint water management when they negotiated the agreement on the protection of transboundary water quality. In addition, in April 2011, China and Kazakhstan officially launched the long-awaited joint drainage project on the Khorgos River, a 150-km Ile tributary flowing along the Kazakh-Chinese border. The project’s goal is to improve irrigation, ensure safe water supply of the ecosystem and reduce potential flood risks, especially for the Khorgos Eastern Gate Special Economic Zone and the Khorgos International Center of Boundary Cooperation. When the project is fully completed, each side should receive 50% of the diverted water. While water sharing on border rivers is different from the situation with transboundary rivers, the fact that this project was eventually launched shows that progress on bilateral water issues between Kazakhstan and China is achievable. In their joint statement issued in June 2017, Nazarbayev and Xi stated that they would make efforts to complete the planned water allocation technical work on transboundary rivers as soon as possible. The two sides also declared that in the shortest possible time they would complete the assessment of water resources of the Ertis, Ile, Emil and other major Kazakh-Chinese transboundary rivers, and intend to intensify work on a draft agreement on water sharing. Thus, it appears that in the near future building joint transboundary water management policy with China in accordance with international law will be the primary goal of Kazakh diplomacy. Written by Azhar Serikkaliyeva Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan        During his official visit to Kazakhstan, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev met with President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, as well as his Kazakh counterpart Bakhytzhan Sagintayev. 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