Will Russia and Japan Reach Consensus on Kuril Islands?

WILL RUSSIA AND JAPAN REACH CONSENSUS ON KURIL ISLANDS? The period under Shinzo Abe’s leadership in Japan can already be described as historical for both internal and external policies of the country. He returned to power for the second time, an extremely rare situation for the Japanese political culture in the absence of a serious political crisis, thus he is set to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. Shinzo Abe has already launched a series of historical reforms, such as changes in labor laws to attract migrant workers and reconsider the role of women in society, as these measures are necessary to alleviate the shortage of labor resources in Japan. Abe managed to achieve growth in the economy and generate yen inflation. The Prime Minister has also introduced a change in the role of the self-defense forces and in the remaining time will most likely try to revise Article 9 of the Constitution that bans Japan from maintaining regular armed forces. But one of the most interesting stories in Abe’s politics is an attempt to settle the long-standing dispute over the Kuril Islands with Russia. The mere fact that Shinzo Abe has already met 25 times with Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a reason to be interested whether Russia and Japan will succeed in resolving the dispute that lasts for almost 73 years.

It is important to understand that Russia does not even recognize the existence of the territorial dispute and believes that it is necessary to conclude a peace treaty and only then discuss any contradictions. The essence of the problem lies in the interpretation of the documents signed after the end of World War II. According to the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan waived all rights to the Kuril Islands and to the southern part of the Sakhalin Island, which it acquired under the Portsmouth Treaty. However, the treaty does not say that Japan recognized the Kuril Islands as part of the USSR, therefore Moscow did not sign this agreement. The Soviet Union and Japan continued negotiations, which led to the signing of the Moscow Declaration in 1956, where they agreed to restore diplomatic relations and continue negotiations on the conclusion of a peace treaty. Actually, at this stage the settlement of the territorial issue stopped. Over the next 70 years, the parties made various attempts to intensify work on the conclusion of a peace treaty but failed to achieve anything. It is important that in 1956 Moscow agreed to transfer the Habomai and Shikotan islands to Japan, but with the condition that the actual transfer would be made after the conclusion of a peace treaty between the countries. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed to hold talks on the ownership of the islands. However, the countries did not find a compromise, and in 2004 Russia returned to the position that there was no territorial dispute and expressed its readiness to negotiate on the basis of the 1956 declaration.

The current negotiation process began in April 2013, when Shinzo Abe made his first visit to Russia. During the visit, Abe announced a new initiative in resolving the situation around the Kuril Islands, which was the introduction of meetings of ministers of defense and foreign affairs in the 2+2 format. Thanks to the activity of the Japanese side, the number of contacts at all levels sharply increased. However, the attempt to create strong bureaucratic ties failed, and all this happened against the background of a fall in trade between the two countries in the period from 2013 to 2015. Therefore, in 2016, during a visit to Sochi, Shinzo Abe proposed to expand his “new approach”, through an eight-point plan to enhance economic cooperation with Russia. In the same year, a special post of the Minister for Economic Cooperation with Russia appeared in the Japanese government. Moreover, in this period Japan imposed minimal sanctions against Russia and, despite Washington’s strong pressure, did not criticize Moscow for the annexation of Crimea, the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash, and the Salisbury poisoning. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s high activity is motivated by a number of factors that are dictated by both national and personal interests. The national interest stems from the fact that the Japanese leadership is afraid of a rapprochement between Russia and China. Tokyo sees this as a threat to the strategic environment, which is reinforced by the fear of the United States leaving the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to this, the Japanese leadership has doubts that the United States will fulfill its obligations under the military alliance if need be. This is the reason for the changing role of the self-defense forces and a possible alteration of Article 9 of the Constitution. Therefore, Shinzo Abe sees the settlement of the Kuril Islands dispute as an opportunity to improve relations with Russia and reduce the importance of Beijing to Moscow. As a complement to this, the solution of the problem will demonstrate Tokyo’s foreign policy independence to the AsiaPacific region and may change the political role of the country that has long been inconsistent with its economic role. The personal interest is connected with a legacy which Shinzo Abe will leave behind. Obviously, reaching a favorable agreement for Japan on this issue will allow him to occupy a special place in the history of his country, as well as to finish the family deal since his grandfather as the Prime Minister and his father as the Minister of Foreign Affairs dealt with this dispute in the past. From the point of view of Russia, in addition to economic reasons, the motivation for improving relations with Japan is tied to China. After announcing the pivot to the east, Moscow has achieved a significant breakthrough only in relations with China. Beijing and Moscow have concluded a number of major cooperative agreements, including on synergizing the EAEU and the BRI. On the one hand, the intensive development of Russia’s relations with China is the bright success of the pivot, but, on the other, the role of Beijing in Moscow’s foreign policy needs to be balanced, therefore the Russian leadership wants to achieve a breakthrough with Tokyo, too. At the same time, Russia hopes that the development of relations with Japan will increase Japanese investments in the country’s Far East.

However, the period between 2016 and 2018 did not lead to a significant economic breakthrough between Japan and Russia. Shinzo Abe drove Japanese businessmen to Russia to all possible economic forums, but they did not see any benefits in investing in Russia, therefore, the entire economic plan of Shinzo Abe was not implemented, and Japanese investment has even declined. Against this background, the intensity of the negotiation process gradually descended. In general, all the remaining activity was supported by the actions of the Japanese Prime Minister, who constantly tried to get the negotiations off the ground by strengthening personal relations with Vladimir Putin.

However, the situation changed dramatically on September 11, 2018 in Vladivostok, where Vladimir Putin proposed to conclude a peace treaty before the end of the year. Actually, such a proposal of the Russian president can be considered as the failure of Shinzo Abe’s entire policy towards Russia because Japan has been rejecting this option for more than a decade. According to the clearly defined Japanese point of view, as long as the territorial dispute is not settled, there is no peace treaty. Therefore, the successful resolution of the dispute is a prerequisite for concluding a peace treaty. Besides, Putin’s proposal is even worse than the formula contained in the Moscow Declaration, which is very unpleasant to Tokyo. It turned out that after so many years of intensive contacts the sides have not moved closer to each other from their extreme positions. The latest meeting of the two leaders was held in Moscow on January 22, 2019. Despite the heated expectations after the statement of Vladimir Putin, the meeting of the two leaders did not lead again to any tangible shift in the resolution of the territorial issue, which, from the strategic point of view, seems necessary for both Russia and Japan. However, the main problem for the Kremlin in the whole situation around the Kurils is as follows: the use of Japan as a tool for the modernization of the economy and development of the Far East, finally turning Japan into a full-fledged partner, is desirable, and Shikotan with Habomai is an acceptable price, but Russia will not be able to get all these benefits from Japan in the foreseeable future. That is why, in the current situation, Moscow is acting by delaying negotiations and does not seriously consider the possibility of a difficult compromise, especially when the rating of the Russian president shows a significant decrease. Consequently, it is difficult to expect that the countries will reach a consensus in the near future. Instead, they may miss the existing window of opportunity, because Shinzo Abe will leave his post in 2021.

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